700
FXUS65 KFGZ 311948
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1248 PM MST Sun May 31 2026
.SYNOPSIS...Warming temperatures and lighter winds are expected
this week. Most areas will remain dry, but chances for showers
and thunderstorms increase by the middle of the week, mainly for
southern Navajo and Apache counties.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A dry southwest flow aloft will continue for our area
through Monday with weak troughing to our west/northwest and a ridge
over the southern plains/Texas. Daytime temperatures will be a few
degrees warmer each day, with relatively light winds.
Tuesday through Thursday - an increase in moisture is forecast over
the eastern 1/3 of the state especially southern Apache and
Navajo counties. This is in response to a brief period of
south/southeast flow aloft as the weak trough approaches from the
west. Ensemble mean precipitable water values are in the
0.50"-0.60" range over this area, peaking Wed/Thu. These values
are down slightly from 24 hrs ago. Shower and thunderstorm chances
are limited to around 20% for the White Mtns region Tuesday,
increasing to 30-60% Wed/Thu with 10-20% chances spreading into
the Chuska Mtns/Window Rock area. Elsewhere, the mid level
moisture increase should be enough for some afternoon high-based
cumulus, but precipitation is not expected. Daytime temperatures
will be within a few degrees of normal, with typical early June
winds of 5-15 mph with gusts around 20 mph.
Friday into next weekend - drier southwest flow is forecast to
return as troughing develops again to our west. Increasing southwest
winds and a bit cooler temperatures could develop as the trough
approaches toward the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...Sunday 31/18Z through Monday 01/18Z...VFR conditions.
Winds are SW-W 5-15 kts through 03Z, becoming light and VRB or
terrain driven overnight.
OUTLOOK...Monday 01/18Z through Wednesday 03/18Z...Primarily VFR
conditions. Winds are SW 5-15 kts each day. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA
possible in southern Apache County on Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Primarily dry, but a slight
chance (10-20%) for showers and thunderstorms in southern Apache
county on Tuesday afternoon. Winds are southwest 10-20 mph each day.
Minimum RH is 5-15% on Monday, then 10-20% on Tuesday.
Wednesday through Friday...Chance (30-60%) for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms primarily in southern Navajo and Apache counties on
Wednesday and Thursday, mostly dry elsewhere. Winds are southwest
through west 10-20 mph each day.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...Lewandowski
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
NWS Flagstaff Office
Tucson, AZ 
