061
FXUS65 KTWC 311940
AFDTWC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1240 PM MST Sun May 31 2026
.SYNOPSIS...High temperatures near to slightly above normal for much
of the week, then a few degrees cooler late in the week and into
next weekend. Moisture also makes its way into the region Wednesday
and Thursday leading to thunderstorm chances Wednesday and Thursday,
perhaps lingering into Friday for the White Mountains.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Clear skies this afternoon under westerly flow aloft
with high temperatures near to a couple degrees below normal.
Heights will be on the uptick over the next couple of days as this
west to southwest flow aloft continues which will allow temperatures
to warm a few more degrees early this week, placing highs near to
slightly above normal.
This week we`re going to be watching for increased moisture mainly
across eastern Arizona Wednesday and Thursday in response to a more
southerly to southeasterly lower level wind flow as a weak mid level
low crosses northern Baja through Sonora Wednesday into Thursday.
PWAT`s will jump up into the 0.7" to 1.0" range during this time
across Graham/Greenlee/Cochise Counties allowing for cloud build-ups
and chances (10-60 percent, highest in the White Mountains) for
showers and thunderstorms. Given the moisture profile, this will be
a mix of both wet and dry thunderstorms with the wetter storms over
the White Mountains and any dry thunderstorms along the western edge
of the westward moisture push. Still some uncertainty on just how
far west the moisture pushes and whether it will move far enough
west to impact Eastern Pima/SE Pinal/Santa Cruz Counties on
Wednesday. For now, PoPs range from 5 to 15 percent in this area
Wednesday, with any storm development more likely on the dry side
with gusty winds.
Moisture quickly departs the area on Friday with lingering storm
chances in the White Mountains, otherwise dry conditions under
westerly flow and broad troughiness over the western US.
Temperatures by Friday and next weekend will be a few degrees cooler
and slightly below normal as normal high temperatures in Tucson
reach 100 degrees by next Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 02/12Z.
SKC through 01/15Z, then SCT-BKN AOA 20k ft AGL. SFC winds WLY/NWLY
8-12 kts with ocnl gusts up to 20 kts thru 01/04Z and again aft
01/17Z, otherwise terrain driven and less than 10 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Warm with dry conditions across Southeast
Arizona early this week. Min RH values will be in the 6-18 percent
range in the valleys and in the 12-25 percent range in the mountains
through this week. 20-foot winds will generally be below 15 mph
through this week except for easterly to southeasterly Wednesday,
mainly for areas east of Tucson with a few higher gusts. By
Wednesday, moisture will move into the region, providing chances for
rain showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday has the highest chances
(10 to 60 percent, highest in the White Mountains), with the bulk of
the thunderstorm chances across Cochise/Graham/Greenlee Counties
with Eastern Pima, SE Pinal and Santa Cruz on the western fringe of
any moisture push. A few of the thunderstorms, especially on the
western edge of the moisture will be mainly dry. Chances can linger
mainly in the White Mountains Friday, then dry for next weekend.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
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